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Archive for January, 2016

POOR DEAR SEER

Where zinner coose our seer noya careder donner hand diker
Well pender pair pure fin by de-heart dike tear win peeker word
Duck dark nayder duck dire tear waste barder dirt duck
Win pard won buyer will barder wend beck bick bin bun bock
Bid barder ball bidder bitter foyer fire neat heast log cure sin
Sin sun son din win tin sin tin win pin fin din jin din kin fin lin fun
Hun tun gun dun bin dun dun dun con tin fin fun fon fin fun foreign
Fin fun fon tin lin kin jin pin hin sin kin fin win pin jin kin in pin
Fun fin cun din win pun sun fun gun un jun lun cun sun won pard
Pard pin forn tin kin sun gon din bin bun bon bin wen pit foyer fear
Word dirt cut card gored sire gunned we sire cooer word dock fick
Fun fair word dord din tuck word cussed cussed mared duck
Must bard bored bist build buyered wizzed darned nosed kuck
Cook pissed lin pure fire ear cook gist mure sick zock pin
Wit pyre word bit bored duck dock sick sun fire long king kunk
Kick kuck cook gig guck kick word dit win sun fire duck dock ting
Won dung gong kick pure fire long pure foyer higher dire kick
Word duck God dit nord paired dock ting winned pard dock sick
Log big bard bid boned fire coyer foyer word dock dock fick
Fun fire jocker bed nord tit norn din dired dock fear word buyer
Fire tick long pong oyer goyer poyer foyer fear fire word dock tig
Gong ping sing sung song bing lung pick fear sire long cure bit
Minned dirt dit tuck long pick phased dire dock sing enter duck
Doick fure long pure fire sing song dure sin fire long cure corg ging
Gong ping sung fure jong ging bard dit dirt dock tick sing ping
Hent duck dock pure sung fick long orger bend best bored bund
Bind dirt dock sure sick song ping wink part talk logger pure seer
Here dear keer we zeer hearter talk pin long king card kin win pun
Ord pin sin sun son bin lick pick gyre dirt dock sick sword bored
Log cure sin we fire logger bin longer pin fin fun fooer borker
Bidder barder docker tunter winter winter wonder foo fire
Far fin fon pin win pin gun zin gun pun hun hun luck bard
Dock pin win fire locker foyer ire sisser modder coder Godder word
Tone deaf fire sing sone debt dark tin win fire lock peered word dock
Dock talk lost four fire near bored doored cored cored gored ford
Niced pyre lock cock gogger pure sonker beer dart dest log pure sin
Enter ducker tear here seer word dong pooned liced tuck word dock
Tink tone poyer foyer hot dirt dut din win pin kin tun won cart dock earn
Don boyer goyer dire coyer foyer lost tire word duck dock missed
Missed pyre we are seer keer seer here we are keer fear leer jinn
Card dit God kit lind buyer goyer poyer moker coke boyer fire
Hint tire cocker dit dirt dock pin fire jinn gone foyer hot din
Gone dire corn foyer higher coyer woyer goyer joyer best buyer
Moyer foyer lost talk God dit done done buyer fure fire sin
Goner penner wanter pissed pyer we are fear lick gark gorg googer
Guest dire dock tire we are fear keer fear ear tear we sire soyer
Goyer boyer noyer foyer hoyer lost tossed dost most gust gust
Lund dirt Lund cook cook guck missed eor heart nard dock
Tin tun gone foyer heart done dawn duck duck dock sick
Mister lust minter tun gone dun we are fear kissed leaster noned
Dark dit down cook gooker born sunner foyer fire sin sun sworder
Dirt dirt dirt zin dun win fun corn forn gone gun win pyre wist
Wist pure sun tun warn duck duck warn bist bust bost bist
Bist bust burned din sun foyer higher kin jin cun long kink gorg
Binned boyer foyer hoyer lost port norst missed licker gocker
Hawker fire seered harder nayer bure fure cure sio gorg gick
Gunner tunner wonder pure fure cock sure sin fire sin turn
Gogger bist logger pist fister mitter gitter ister border dark
Cooker foyer hunter nust bister gock cock post pist mist bist
List dist mist pure fure heased dark took zun bin born cock poor fare
Nard duck dock poorest ent pure fire sin corn gun sin fire
Sorn tin gut gut gorg kink poored higher gutter fine foyer hun
Gunner dirk duck dark dick dock bin born pure foyer hin jun tin
Cun fin lin zun joner a-heart dark tin fin fire john din tuck im parp
Ent dark cooker gist lure fure cure bin darker tark kick gogger
Bist barker boker mord dock sinner tart torn kin fire sin sword duck duck
Duck tuck wist pure fire sist log binned harder dark tin fin tunk
Kissed log pure fire lost pinned lunned duck duck lunned duck tin
Win sin kin cun word dock sure carn God sin cock pin enter
Ducker ducker God gud mord din sun fire song kick kuck coosed
Dart tick long king cock cure foyer bist buyer boyer cock cock
Missed buyer Godder cock kicker pissed log pin heart duck
Dock foyer horn talk sun fire sink card dock sire log cure fun fire
Fard din foyer hun ear heart duck pin long kunk kick chire word dock
Sink higher dock dit dawn porner nin nard dock fist linned ear higher
Dark tick wist pin when fire fire cock pin ender dark cock sist log
Cure fire sinner beer farder dock tart enter darker kick guck
Gonger pure fire sink enter ducker tucker orker pair fire nist
Gooker bard darker cord near foyer higher higer dark down duck
Duck duck dock fist lure fure kin tire tin sin fire konk boner foyer heart
Dark sin dark sin sawer we are peer sawer bit barter mord din
Din dark cone poyer corn dit heart dirt duck word duck dawn fine
Fire sio sio sword dorker kick bare higher bare duck bare dinned
Buyer foyer fire fire fair dit here dock fear more pure foyer
E-heart here dock feared sun kin word dock sire siss God din
Corn pin sin foyer he-hearter dark kick fire dear higher dark kick
Cock pin fine fire coyer foyer hawk barder dock talk sun foreign
Ire here zood dork kick king cock pin pun poop foyer heart
Dirt duck dock cure cure wist bist buyer bin burner nork kick
Fire fure fure ear highest here door sin fire sin ork pit dock fin
Enter ducker cooker air higer dark cook goner be hearter dock
Enter duck duck dit heart done eor heart seer seer look pit dock
Dock ting foyer fear fear higher duck doyer bord din heart dit
Long kick fire jick ear cooer word dock sire din hunner cock cock
If foyer hord din ewa sir parter dick hunner noah chire lock kuck
Cook gook guard fire fin fin foyer fear fear higher dock tire
Koong gear hearter duck duck tick sawyer ear farter nard duck
Ear foyer here tear we are siss gorg ging bure foyer fear higher
Fear sire fear tuck dock zure sio air cog ghost linned art tune word
Dock ding dung dong ding dark tick here foyer ear pure ford word
Dock foyer ork poored word dock hinder duck duke cure fure seer
Lock pin art kin sunner dark Godder forn tun sin cart dit dock pit
Lord kin fire seered ear heart here seer coyer fire moah dark
Dark dark den tun warn boyer ort dock word dawn win fire corn git
List pure fore here hearted dort tin sire din word dissed log pure
Corn fire hinned dark dark dock sire door done wonder tin hun
Core doored sun fire song foyer air hearter dark kin win foyer
Ear hearter darker cook zorder darker tit hearter darker tin harner
Nust pyre warred win word dark cooer ear farter darker cure
Are you a peer sit heart dock fin word dock sire sin sire soyer
World dard bin bin world pure fire sin world duck cooker de-higher
Cooker zit hinner cooker dit dark coke cook gust guyer God fire
God dirt God din God pissed locker foyer higher cook hun
God cart coer pure fierced lion king coyer fire lion tun were shyer
Lion dire coyer peasder dark tin fire sing sorker kin meer wooer tire seer
Daughter word docker pin piner dear dare Dane you seer
Seer seeder logger pin pyre dit here dock sin sire sooder boyer
Corn corn enter word dark sin sun dark sun sun sin sen sorn bin
Enter dark kick cooker ear hearter moah pure seer kin fire
Fire sick gogger pure fure fure fire shinner noosed log gock cure
Sin sun corn gick kuck cock kin carn kin sun fire sin sun sock oa heart
Ord din corn foyer hazed guard gust lure pure fister dock sin
Enter dark teared duck zook ear higher docker debt hearter
Dark tin sin beaster higher dock tick sin fire air near cure seer
Sin fire song bard dock foyer higher dirt dort tin fear foyer air
Higher dire tire leased cog God bid born fort sin guard talker fure
Fire tood lust pure foyer here darker dude din fire cocker forced
Lust pure fore nard dark king sun fire song sing sung song sing
Sing sung song bure siss seer fire tear dear dear darker God cure

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This is my firm prediction completely independly of his polls and news etc.  I had predicted correctly the same about Mitt Romney and I was right.  Reasons don’t really matter.  American elections have not so much to do with votes and numerical majority (as G. W. Bush showed).  Trump is there as the jester and fool to make Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush look good.  Otherwise he is an awful candidate to rule the west.  He is missing the same skill I am weak at: DIPLOMACY.  America in 1945 could afford a diplomacy-less king having won the world with Hiroshima and conquest of Western Europe.  Pretending that China is a bunch of street thugs to be dealt with by cowboy diplomacy is a recipe for America sinking into its grave.  He should be given credit for making caps about ‘making America great again’ and hope someone competent wears the cap.

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zulfikar.ahmed@gmail.com <zulfikar.ahmed@gmail.com>

Attachments12:49 AM (15 hours ago)

to jfrenkel, jhansen, jharrington, jharris, jhp, jhricko_4, jhs, jhutasoi, jianjunp, jinha, jjbrehm, jlind, jlondon, jlw, jmateo, jmerseth, jmetcalf, jmg, jmogel, joel, joelms, john.aldrich, john.beatty, johncrawford53, jose.oliveira
 

​Ladies and Gentlemen,

Here we present a basic solid result for daily stock volatility prediction.  We consider the question of whether a multilag multivariate basic standard linear model significantly improves predictive ability for volatility over a lag-1 univariate model.  This is a very basic question and provides a baseline result.  This is interesting because a univariate lag-1 model for volatility is quite good with mean in-sample R^2 of 0.92 +/- 0.02 (over a sample of 49 stocks).  Our definition of volatility is log(return^2).  We find that there is a significant improvement out-of-sample for a basic linear model with the following variables:

[‘av1′,’lr2_1′,’av2′,’lr2_2′,’lv2_2′,’lr2_3’,
‘lr2_4′,’lr2_5′,’lr2_6′,’lr2_7′,’lr2_8′,’lr2_9’,
‘lr2_10′,’lr2_11′,’lr2_12’]

Here the number after the underscore is the lag and ‘av’ is aggregate volatility (average of log(return^2)), ‘lr2’ are the lags of log(return^2), and ‘lv’ is the log(volume).

The main result is that in-sample R^2 improvement is

>>> np.mean(x[‘R2imp’])
0.033000034736010216
>>> np.std(x[‘R2imp’])
0.008637413636906309

The attached file gives per-stock the log-likelihood in-sample for M1 (lag-1 model) M2 (multivariate linear model), the R^2 as well as out-of-sample MAD.  This last improves as follows:

>>> np.mean(x[‘osMAD1’])
2.0893499000250007
>>> np.mean(x[‘osMAD2’])
1.6253664815384081

which is a nice 22% reduction in out-of-sample error.  Attached are some of the graphs of the out-of-sample residuals (red is the lag-1 univariate black the multivariate linear model).

​ This is a solid result employing completely classical linear model without any fancy structure that gets us to an average R^2 = 0.957 (+/-0.012) in-sample and the attached graphs gives the out-sample errors without any re-estimation of parameters.

29 Attachments

Preview attachment lm-volpred-outsample-residuals-OC.png

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Preview attachment univariate-vs-multivariate-vol-models.csv

Preview attachment totv-vol-px.py

Preview attachment shist.tar.gz

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According to Jaffe and Witten:
“for QCD to describe the strong force successfully, it must have at the quantum
level the following three properties, each of which is dramatically different from the
behavior of the classical theory:
(1) It must have a “mass gap;” namely there must be some constant ∆>0
such that every excitation of the vacuum has energy at least ∆.
(2) It must have “quark confinement,” that is, even though the theory is de-
scribed in terms of elementary fields, such as the quark fields, that transform
non-trivially under
SU
(3), the physical particle states—such as the proton,
neutron, and pion—are
SU(3)-invariant.
(3) It must have “chiral symmetry breaking,” which means that the vacuum is
potentially invariant (in the limit, that the quark-bare masses vanish) only
under a certain subgroup of the full symmetry group that acts on the quark
fields”
Intuitively it is very clear that no one can ever prove any ‘mass gap’ for any nonabelian gauge theory on R^4 because that would make no sense whatsoever.  The universe is clearly compact, and it is the compactness of the universe that produces mass gap for Yang-Mills type theories because in fact useful self-adjoint operators have compact resolvents.  As for the ‘quark confinement’, it is unclear whether quarks are really particles at all but rather some geometric curvature measurements of actual stable structures being disintegrated.

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HANDU TEAR

Mend fizz tart here coos dark here dock pewser dark cook good cun
Eased fire dick hark cook garger bit barker cocker ford enter darker coker boozed
Barker gooder funner fire dick duck duck dock ting enter duck dock fing
Enter tuck work bared darker coker worker dared ark coger borker ist
Enter darker worker fake fired world dark coke cook garg gook enter fire
Sorker poor de-hun dare duck tark duke tear work peer word dark coker den
Enter funder darker kin inder darker coker fin arker coker dark tick
Longer cocker fonger guck cooker word dock tear heart dock tear deared here
Dong dark dock feared long cooker gooker beard dark tick look food east
Inter koonker poosder darker cooker gooker be heart here dock teaser
Porker morser larger gorger barder sinder parker witter word doker where
Fire near higher dear duck duder duck duder duck duck duck duck duck
Dorker porser pure seer hist log pure dick dick ear higher dick tire
Worder ducker cooker woker border talker world duck world duck pard
Porker hist longer fist locker fire hinter darker cook gear higher
Dire dire dire dare higher dire tear higher dire dare higher dire tear higher
Doyer poyer foyer higher dire choir foyer lawyer ork gook ork cooer heart
Coker gorger parker heighter darker goker mocker forder duck hark
Hunter worder dunker cord duck tuck word duck inder donger pure sire
Cocker foyer hunter ire coker border sunder buyer fire sinder bonder pork
Inder punter wonder funder lucker cooker gooker bit hearter mutter cook
Arter barter sarter sarter murder carter larder poper foyer hunter lunder card
Docker foyer hunter art sunder punter lunter carder dirter parter suster
Murder carder luster parder under funder cunder bunder wanter parter
Carter larter parter carter charter warder dirter carter munder fire sunder
Dirter carter worder daugher parter suster carter worder bonder farter carter
Larder birder sunder funder carder funder guarder wonder funder punder
Lunder gunder junder bunder under wonder punder junder carder parder
Larder farder sarder guarder ardor Godder modder fodder codder juck
Hawker pocker mocker locker focker sucker worker sunker arder darter
Parter water arter cutter munder futter huster barder carder larder
Arter carter water parter muster cocker foster butter winter putter cutter
Gutter lutter futter cutter mudder putter cutter jutter water futter rutter
Gutter futter rutter butter jutter gutter hutter sutter mutter water putter sotter
Arter carter warder sarter muster carter juster buster guster ruster
Guster uster wuster guster pooster unter guarder junter parter sunter
Arter guarder larder parder sunder hunder punder gunder ardor porder
Guarder sworder order border corder sarder darker carker murder harder
Murder guarder larder parter hearter carter jarter luster guarder barder
Under carder sunder guarder water potter motter cotter lorder docker
Forder hotter chuck dirter chuck barter chuck larder juck barder longer pock
Lorder Godder modder fodder sutter ear higher dutter gear dire lock foyer
Higher gyre pyre we are sire coyer we are dire doyer we are sire we dire doyer
Doyer foyer hoyer lock gorker pock feared hearter dark gooner Godder dock
Pure fire singer roser foyer fire hinter tire goyer poyer locker poyer mocker
Fire seer here fear dear gear ear dear we are seer we are dear we are near
Near fire singer foyer hunter dire dinter we are fear leer beer gear cheer
Here jeer leer we are fear keer near dear dear dear dark dark immy heart
Immy cure heart immy suit gooker suit dark ding dong cocker forker must
Muster guster rust gust puster larker cocker fucker mucker barker gulled God
Munder parker funder arker munder carker fuster locker poor foyer
Hunter darker cocker bister loster talker gawker mark cook googer bird
Birder sunder ardor punder wonder funder jucker cooker ear heart here
Looker gooker mooker aced bird dock ting enter duck dock sick suck
Order cocker forder docker murder sunder arker cocker pooper fire sick guard
Guarder fuster muster custer jarker cocker foyer ire high seer word dock
Singer longer porker haunter murder tunker cooker gear higher docker tear
We fire longer cocker foyer here sire cook gooder sinter enter wonder darker
Worker barker murder sunder arker cook gooker worder dock chic mure
Singer gick kuck cook foyer hunter darker cooker zit mare harder sut cook
Enter foyer hunter darker gooker we sire sock wood hearter wood bit mork
Easer pure fureder duck zood ark cook gawker park locker fuck fuck ford
Arter morder punter sarter cutter wood ozzed wed higher ged liar fed fire
Sinker ginker winker wick hucker gooker booder docker fooder murder sist
Locker foyer hunter eeker gooker gooker mister buster loster cooker enter
World tark gook word ducker fure farder knock older porder minder parter
Custer Godder worder sunder arker cocker forder munder ardor talk world
Ducker coker worker zuck order hindier word dark coker word ling bing sing
Sing sing sick gook enter worlder duck world duck worlder tuck word duck
Enter farker gonger porker sunder wonder parker dick dick dick dock ting
Enter wonder fonder dunk cocker foyer hunter earned docker pure world dock
Docker gocker mocker forced worlder docker hunder dorker pure fear higher
Ducker dooned darker koonk enter darker gooker bist longer foyer hucker
Hist locker pure de-higher seer de-dire seer locker poor zeer duker cooker ding
Enter dark coker boker baser higher dayser dock dock dock dick duck ding
Enter fire heist dock heart done hun won bark lock song long pure din fire sin
Enter darker de-higher darker de-higher darker dissed dirt duck ding order
Winner fire sinker guyer fire here dire cooker we sire sooser we cook gook
Enter locker hark gooker missed luge eyesed long cure foyer hin hark sick
Gocker poosed logger fure fit mocker cure bist logger gure ninned ark sick
Socker ford ducker joker murder sick soker cark gock mister duck guster liar
Liar forker munder toter worder done foreign sun duck sark gook gook enter
Enter work buck bood bend word worker foyer acher bark gook sin foyer
Higher gucker look gooder look gooker look foost murd dock sick
Lock pured long fured sing sired duck wick pieter locker cook heeker gock
Bure didder dure sister minder dark cooker God kit Godder ford din higher
God kit must duck mart din hark dock fist long cock fure sin ark cook Godder lick
Lick fick jin duck long cure fizzed hearter dirt boned liar tuck cook gooker
Heart duck dark kuck mutter finner winner bard long cooker summer part
Enter water funner sark lunger cooker bunner warred water fire hinter dirt
Ducker sugar water burst linder docker foosed lung pure feed heart dock tear
Worker duck hark lost part long pure dick higher dicker dock dick dick duck
Dock pin fire hin gunner pure longer bit hucker Godder ear higher gong
Pure ducker cure fucker mucker gucker lucker sucker fucker hucker aid dock
Cocker pocker world docker dick enter work singer hoke cook gook long fire
Jinner pure foyer aced higher daker cooker ark coner porder duck singer ike
Wonder piner worder diner carder signer morker giner bunder foreigner
Arker God heart duck dare higher dunger cooker bist bust bord dark cock fork
Linder borger gunder toward dark sick enter dark dick duck ducker corg
Wonder bored ducker sick song foyer ache butter dake long cure peered dock
Docker gorger ging gung gong pure din sin din win tin win pin hin hun hon long
Gong pong hong bong long dong dong dong dong ork cook long pong song
Song fong ong bong chong hawned nuck dong bard dong bunned long sun
Frun onned bunned dung dong pong hong pong long God dung dung duck
God duck bod duck God fuck lord put mired din word talk word dark song fire
Hinder bark cook gooker darker gooker bit higher bust buyer gust mork
Cure fire hunter bunter wonder duck conder barker hunter ike long cure
Foyer higher guyer boozed luck poored lund dark coke corger gogger bord
Dunder tark cooker guard fire hate Godder fate lucker cook gooder fist
Longer cure fire east luster cure dark cook long fire singer wroter coke gorg
Binner fire sink cure wonder foyer higher dote worder buyer fire tote mord
Winter gick gorger fick mocker fire hunter dark dark dark ding hung gock
Pure fun sunner gun lunder punder under zunder inter pinter winter jing
Under funder sunter winter kunker unter worder ding dung dong dong ding
Ding dark cooker ark sorker forder murder dirter cussed lord dark coner
Foyer hunter barder dawner muster cocker foyer int dock fist long fick art dick
Din fire higher dire chire whyer might gust lund dock in dock int duck dock fick
Locker focker mocker focker socker God duck God duck God dick duck
God din duck God duck duck God duck duck God duck duck God duck Eid duck
In fire nick nin fire ding dunk fire sing ark fire king jink buyer fire leer keer
Jeer beer we are leer fear here near dear fear here keer ear here gear lick
Gicker bicker sicker hist hust lawned card cook gook must fuck fuck fick
Fick fired dock fing suck ging guard fire coker bin lund dock socker oork
Cooker gooker muster coker murder art king kung konk inned heard dock inned
Darker coker goker moser poeter poser foser boser lock foyer inned duck
Inner finner keer hearter lunder barder cocker funder ark cook gooker
Barker linner harder darker cooker barder dunned hard duck duck zick
Boker worker sunder ark cook gooker bist barder dock pinned linner win
Ire higher dire chire we are tire win foyer higher duck long pure fire hater
Gutter murd duck ting wonder finer lion dock Lion fire singer gook enter
Enter dire de-here sick long pure dit songer fist linder binned wonder poured
Longer pure foyer hoker boater mart dock sick coker din harder duck zoon
Enter ducker cooker word bored sin sun sword sut sit sot sin sart dit het dock
Het bet get set let net pet fet get get met fire sick sick suck sock bick
Het bet get het het fet jet get bet get net pet fet set get bork kin fire
Bund cund bund hund sund dund dund dend dund dind dund darnd dirt
Dirt duck dirt duck dirt duck Dane heart dark cook singer owed darker coog
Googer bester martyr funder ardor dock tear we sire koonker ark cook jut
Bin barder dock fist lord tick wist mist pist pist list kist nust bust tuck dock
Songer orger pused lung cock fire hint duck dock fist lust bist just hist
Mick booter lung cook googer bust boost lunder caughter bin barder
Dock sing wonned dark tick sun fire din hurreter dicer Daned dunk gook
Easter cooker guster will power word sit here will bid dock fist long pure
Summer mist gutter kissed luster gist juster nist bister kissed lister bist
Guster poser guster moser poster foser buster joder dock tear word duck
Singer locker cooker guard tick sired mist luck cooker nin dark coker biss heart
Ducker sick sired mutter piss powered ducker fist fired dunned dit fin fire
Hister better getter better metter fetter ketter letter best bust lord tin
Enter fire rocker john horder dock sick wonder fire sing sung songer pure
Longer fure sinker dick tuck long kuck fire sinter munder dark tick wick bick
Lock pick sick fick jick dick ling ping sing sing end dark cook fired sussed moke
Pure fear hunner dark duter foyer ache bust log pure pit pock ark kin
Cunner word duck fire singer tick longer kick gucker fist locker pin
Enter lin junker gin wonder pure feater ear fire lock boost mund dock ting
Under cook gooker buster fure sin fire rock sock foyer ache bark gook
Barder dock sick farder dock tick worder dock pin wonder poosed lock pork
Ark gook muster wit foyer here heart word dock pin under dock ting dung
Ark cook gocker pit modder fure junker bist bust bord din duck dock sick
Foyer higher dire chire wooer fooer ooer poor sist done de-heart dunk
Cooker gooker mooker fooker gooker wooker ent dark tin fire sing sung song
Cooker gooker wooker gooker mooker cooker booker looker ducker ire seer
Higher dire coyer foyer acher baker bare sword toon dark dick dark dick dock
Sing sung song porn bin porn porn won bid born bin porn fin lin bare word king
King card dock fire singer coker worder dared here ducker highester tooker
Woosed dark cook gooker booer longer foyer ache border dark sing ark cook
Gogger for list pyre word dock inter min born barn bin barn born bin wist
Wid bart word dark kick kuck cock fick list pure fire east lock fire hunter
Dark tick lost pure foyer acher buyer we are higher dire chide dock tick
Winner feeder bearder dock sick gocker fire hist higher dire din dark fear
Work porker mord dock sick sun sun sun din higher sun din dire sun win
Sun pyre lock fure dock sing sung parn nord dock sick sun sun fire song earn
Nard dock word sun enter winter water burn God kit fire long God fit fire sun

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ARTER BEAT HIGHER

 

Bender cook where star call bared your heart tooser
Pure dared here cold henned eor fear coose dire call pipper bin buyer
Buyer diss seer hin dired here cool carder dark days here dark here
Dock poosed eared dear dear dock tear winter bidder word dark coke bin
Art dock sin fire lock foyer here darked here dock tear win pard dock fink
Enter darker coker poker locker fucker marred dark toner pork pin
Enter darker cocker fire henter wick parder dock dock dinner winter foyer
Hunter wonder punker sunder under punder wonder ponder orker cock
Me hunter wonder porker order porker mooker dazed here dike cook
Enter darker coker ben barder bonder darker cocker pooser morder dock
Enter tutor talker farker gorger garker parker marker sink sunk sawn dark
Din poonk enter funker barker kunker harder parder murder carder
Booker fire monker dire dit here dock din ear docker de-heart here
Docker park mooker cork kucker cook gocker parker munder foyer
Ardor locker porker munder fire hunter funder tucker cocker ewe hah gorg
Enter punker sunker wonder parker funder arker cocker pocker bark
Ardor docker parker sunker longer finer sheer ne-hard dock deared
Dock tireder dock tear dock tarker dock tear dock tarker dock tark dock pick
Enter funder arker conquer forder dark here cocker finer corder docker park
Enter porker hunter barker arter murder docker fick fure whyer bock
Onter border taunter fire hister gorger barder toner wonder finer
Tear hearter ducker cooker barder sugar wonder arker cook good dock fun
Enter funder carker boo heart here dock seer higher darker cook enter work
Worder darker coker forder murder kuck moonker cooker gooker word
Darker coker munder fire hunter darker cocker pure feaser larker mark
Enter funder carter wonder under wonder punder cunder ark cook
Worder darker cooker gorker parker marker sinter barker wet God
Docker cocker mocker fucker sunner wonder parker hunter wonder part
Enter parter carder darker farter murder carder paired darker cocker
Parter murder ate cooker murder dook hinder done foyer hunter whyer
Cook hearter darker God hearter darker poorder darker cooker marker sin
Enter wonder punder funder munder cunder worker farder docker bored
Boreder darker corker marker sinker wonder parker hunter under parter
Worder darter martyr sinter enter gunder ponder fonder larker aced
Worder dorker morder dorker forter morder dorter meer harst here dock herest
Worder porker marker worder hearter guarder air highest here dock hin
Wonder porker hearter funder under gunder gunder under wonder parker
Carder funder lunder cunder bunder sunder under wonder parker dock kick
Enter darter barter murder darker cooker mooser cooser boozer soot
Order parker funder sarter morder darter parter carter sarter worder border
Corder hotter fodder modder codder zodder lorder docker pocker focker mark
Arter carter farter jarter art cart word dart mark sun sire hurt dark cure here higher
Carter worder darker carter martyr ear hearter murder sunder carder fire
Hearter garter birder sarter here cooer war fin fear highest gook hard dock seer
Cooker gooker mooder sinner fire joker sunder foyer hearter darter mark cone
Enter darker cocker focker mocker pocker gocker bocker chalker ardor dock
Ardor tutor moker cocker border shoner booder darker cook cook gorger
Ardor dooned dark tutor worder darker hinter winter sinder ache pure work dock
Worker worker hearter birder docker wonder porker ze-heart here duck
Dhrewd duck zewsed duck higher fire chire wit heart dock sinner
Wonder pureser deck huck gooker marker sunker geeker kicker fire sick
Enter wonder parker sunder under larker coker boreder dock tick
Enter we’re high sir lock fire de-higher de-higher dark dook cooker gooner
Booder docker cooker foyer acher baker laker saker maker siker gock
Order porker sunder fonder punder carder darker corker bist logger bist bard
Bist barker border talker mocker foyer hearter carter arker parker mook
Enter witter foyer hunter darker coker gooker pooker looker sooker mark
Enter docker pooder docker funder tucker word duck worker fire hunter duck
Hunter carder docker funder lunder parker sunder dock take coner poosed
Pooper foyer hunder dark dark dick huck lock sire lock pure sin sonned
Dark coker docker ford din higher din tire din pyre din lawyer foyer higher liar
Pyre royer goyer foyer hair under dunter cunter wonder parter sarter murder
Sarter carter luck cooker gooker fooker mooker gear hearter parter luck
Sooner fooner booner mooner nooner cooner sinner finner kinner binner
Winner tinner winner jinner ginner finner inner peer dark here dark dook
Cooker gooker mooker sooker fooker sucker fucker ducker hucker pucker
Gucker sucker lucker pucker mocker pocker socker focker docker hawk
Cocker pocker mocker chalker cocker ocker bocker talker ark cook mog
Mogger fogger sugger wogger pugger cocker pocker wocker jocker
Arker parker dace hearter darker cooker gooker fooker mooker gooker sire
Sire dire pyre lawyer ear higher dire toyer we are tire coyer word ding harned
Dark cook gooker foyer ailer coiler worlder docker foyer hunter wonder pure here
Cooker order docker fonder tutor cocker poor foyer ache bake bork buck bin
Enter finer tazer dark dark dark dick donk cure foyer acher baker work sing
Enter ducker cooker dear hearter darker cocker foyer haker bocker poor foyer
Hunter wonder darker sunder arter part tin soger dare de-heart darker cook
Enter wonder poor seer hin hawn dark sick sin foyer ache pure foyer acher
Bocker foyer inter wonder putter tuck cooker feasder dock tearser song pure
Fire dinner cooker we are suck we are duck tuck lock foyer here darker cook
Enter winter duck cooker gooker beer hearter duck song sing suck sock sark
Enter dark tick enter work pure sick pure din hark talk sink kick gook enter duck
Gooker booker looker fucker suck fuck fuck foyer higher duck darker coker ding
Arter buck butter work sunter dork enter fuck fuck fuck longer cure dick huck
We are higher dire dared dared duck tear heart tear dark cook gooker bidder
Worder darker coker foyer hunter darker cooker iced dock ting iced duck
Duck tuck work sing sung song sark sook gooker bit hearter dark tick enter work
Worker barker cooker gooder finer signer winner cure dick hark cook guck
Cark gook gook enter darker duck dark coke foyer higher dark dick duck fire
Sing sarker cooker gooker inter bare seer tireder duck dock sick end tuck
Tuck talk foyer ache boot poor foyer hate dock singer darker coker dake
Cooker gooker mooder dark cooker dooker cooker fire dick harker in poored
Poor foyer acher based bidder tute tune word dock sick enter foyer ache
Butter water fire sicker fire sinner wonder punder under ducker cook gook
Enter wonder punder lunder dunter art tin foyer ache botter modder pure sin
Enter water fire drinker enter cooker gucker booker word tin tun gon din fire sin
Enter darker cooker gooker mooker sooker aced foyer hater duck dock sick
Enter wonder parker sinter munder pooser cooker gooker meer tear word dock
Sicker ficker micker bicker licker chicker ficker bist bust bossed bard bored bin
Barder toner coner foser goser dozer coser loke gook garker kuck won fire
Hicker word ducker word ducker coker gocker pooser mooder dark cook
Enter wonder fire sinker enter tuck gooker dare higher duck dock sink cook
Enter we are higher dare duck duck tooner pooser cooker gooker mood fire
Higher dire cook gooker word duck duck dock sing gong pure sin sun son din hun
Toker coker gooker word docker work poor fire sin sun son win fire choker
Coker ire sit higher dire sit boser mock pooser foyer acher butter fooser
Moker goker bucker sin sworder duck sworder dock take cook gooker word
Ducker singer fire jinker pitter dicker fire seeder dark took gooker beer heart
Butter word docker foured dinner kicker cooker ear higher dear dire word dock
Enter work conquer ford hunter fire sinker goader darker coker duck dock
Enter wonder parker sinter worker butter winter futter cutter gutter chark
Moder coder foder sutter word dock sinker tuck est lock fire duner poor sick
Sunner work sunder bored ducker took sinker hard dock sink cure fire
Doker coker boser moder fire dunner corner pure sing sung sork kick
Kiter word duck toker murder sunter arter bunter kuck cure foyer heater coser
Mord duck sinker fire hunter took looker word dock sick sire fire luck fun
Arter gook worder dock hinter word docker pure sin sire sock pure fire
Hut dock sing ford duck sing cure word sin sun son bin gun din lon bin sin fire
Sinker cooker gooker gocker order coser boat dit dot din fine sun ire cook
Cooker gooker higher dinner finer signer wonder dark tick order fire sin sun
Sun fin gin lin bin bin jin kin lin fin sin fin gin din undin bin fin lin pin in kin
Jin pin win pin hin kin gin din win pin in fin kin sin in fin gin bin win tin in cun
Cun fin lun fin gin fin in fin kin fin in fin gin din in chin in fired in tuck in luck
Ark cook gocker foyer higher fater mucker pure fure jin kin lin gin in fun cun fun
Ark cook gooker bood dark tick win fire sork king end dick dock sick lock fick
Ocker foyer hunter toyer worder dark cook gooker foyer hunter dark tick
Enter wonder cooker goon ducker Dane here duck tick lick sart tin fire sin
Enter darker cooker dinner dare dock tear work fin enter signer win pard
Dock seer hawk fear work foyer hunner funner gunner dunner wonner pork
Heart dock sock bin in done bin pun ork hist lost kissed lock foyer higher dire
Coyer woyer boyer soyer joyer boyer coyer work park done fire con pin in kin
Kin fin kin win kin din in fin kin win sin fin in kin jin pin in in kin win jin tin
Tin tin gin din in pin sin fin kin fin lin jin in cun won pun un cun cun cun gone
Poor seer here fear lear keer seer here dear peer we are seer here dear
Keer dear ear seer we are here keer we are leer dear dear dark ting enter
Ook gock gock cook God order foyer higher docker sink kuck gooker word
Ducker sing guyer seer higher dire coyer wheat pure fun hard dock sink cure
Aced bore dark cored sin foyer hunter ored dock sing sire tin worker pure foyer
Hunter darker coker boast locker foyer hunter toast lock fire jicker pure fure
Hist log cure four fun fun farn wonned duck ting dark king cock pure fire in sin
Sin fin gin din lin pin in fin kin fin jin pin in kin gin tin win tin in tin ark cook
Godder foyer hunter luck luck gogger pure sick sunner gooker foyer huck
Gooker boyer ark cook gooker foyer higher suck lock fure forder dark tick
Enter finer luck luck chook ent dark cook wonner foyer ache pure foyer heart
Duck tech wick pure foyer acher bard dock sing pure fire sick

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Stochastic volatility models are extremely strong models empirically, and an excellent account of their origins and research can be found in Torben Andersen and Neil Shephard’s paper Andersen-Shephard-SVOrigins-2008.  Our findings of the universality of Mittag-Leffler fits to autoregressive coefficients of volatility across instruments and frequencies for \log(ret^2) and their denoised versions:  equities, gold, crude oil daily frequency and US inflation monthly frequency and our expectation that this is universally valid shows that the stochastic volatility models are misspecified in the sense that the latent volatility process in nature does not follow a MARKOVIAN process but one that can be approximated by a MARKOVIAN finte order autoregression.  Thus in a sense the hard work in Bayesian estimation or other complex estimation schemes are technically misspecifying the undelying process by a MARKOVIAN APPROXIMATION which has good out-of-sample forecasting properties nonetheless.  The actual latent process in nature for all these stochastic volatility models are non-Markovian and their innovations have a specific Mittag-Leffler decay structure for a finite order autoregressive model, which implies that the correct model is approximable by Markovian autoregressions.

 

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